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Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) Home
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"COAMPS-TC improves forecasts and evacuation correctness in both the Pacific and Atlantic oceans and enhances the safety of U. Navy ships, aircraft, and the civilian population. " At 617, 800 square miles, the entire Gulf of Mexico in proportion to Hurricane Harvey's size, 200 miles in diameter, a tracking error of 100 nautical miles is significantly accurate, according to Doyle. "We've found this year's version of COAMPS-TC to be most skillful in our area of responsibility, eastern North Pacific and North Atlantic basin, " said Dr. Michael Brennan, Branch Chief in the Hurricane Specialist Unit at NHC. "This variety of COAMPS-TC is included in the multi-model consensus aids for track and intensity that we create at NHC to blend together our best available model guidance. " In addition to forecasting tropical cyclone activity for the Navy and Marine Corps around the world, having accurate forecasts is also important in the Defense Department's mission in supporting civil authorities. "It is critical for citizens to have faith in their institutions to provide accurate information for their safety and livelihood, " said Baton Rouge Mayor Sharon Weston Broome.
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Firefighters assigned to the Commander, Naval Region Japan Fire Department provide simulated care to Machinist's Mate 3rd Class Michael Foster during a Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness exercise. The event is part of Exercise Reliant Gale, designed to maintain Fleet Activities Yokosuka's level of emergency preparedness, personnel accountability, and evacuation and recovery operations during a natural disaster. Credit: US Navy photo by Mass Communications Specialist 3rd Class Gregory A. Harden II/Released Researchers at the U. S. Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) think their weather prediction model, Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System for Tropical Cyclones (COAMPS-TC), tracked 2017's Gulf of Mexico storms better than ever. Used by the National Hurricane Center (NHC), a component of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), COAMPS-TC is updated annually before hurricane season with new innovations to improve TC modeling and predictions. "In a 72-hour timeframe COAMPS-TC has a significantly low tracking error average of about 100 nautical miles and an intensity error of only 17 knots, " said James Doyle, a research meteorologist at NRL-Monterey (NRL-MRY).
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The United States Naval Meteorology and Oceanography Command (NMOC) provides critical information from the ocean depths to the most distant reaches of space, meeting needs in the military, scientific, and civilian communities. The following NMOC components make their products available to the public through this portal: The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) is the U. S. Department of Defense agency responsible for issuing tropical cyclone warnings for the Pacific and Indian Oceans. The Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC) provides the highest quality, most relevant and timely worldwide meteorology and oceanography support to U. and coalition forces from its Operations Center in Monterey, California. The Naval Oceanographic Office (NAVO) maximizes seapower by applying relevant oceanographic knowledge in support of U. National Security.
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"But equally important is our team's commitment to methodical, systemic evaluation that lead to improvements we've made to the system through the years that has really paid off. "
These three Navy organizations work closely on a new initiative aimed at closing the gaps in our understanding of hurricanes and tropical cyclones. "Numerical and weather prediction models are constrained by their weakest link, " Doyle said. "We are constantly working to make sure all aspects of the COAMPS-TC system are integrated together and operating as well as possible. " The NRL team provides yearly improvements to the COAMPS-TC system which stimulates new research topics related to hurricanes and tropical cyclones that are still not well understood and need to be addressed to improve the model. The 2019 hurricane season model was improved through careful analysis of the previous three seasons. NRL reran the model through experiments to methodically test and ensure any change made for the 2019 season improved the model. Scientists picked from a vast sample of storms from around the world including ones on which the model performed poorly. "We test across many different cases and really try to understand and address the model's weaknesses, " Doyle said.
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COAMPS-TC—a numerical weather prediction model —uses computer programs and supercomputers to predict the track, structure and intensity of tropical cyclones (TC) around the world, using layers of historic and current environmental data. Citation: NRL updates tropical cyclone weather predicting model (2017, December 14) retrieved 13 June 2021 from This document is subject to copyright. Apart from any fair dealing for the purpose of private study or research, no part may be reproduced without the written permission. The content is provided for information purposes only.
July 14, 2021